Oscar Picks

My Oscar Picks

(for major categories)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Frozen River
  
• Happy-Go-Lucky
  
• In Bruges
  
• Milk
  
• WALL-E 
  

This is a tough category, as I really liked all of these scripts.  WALL-E was touching and wonderful of course, as was In Bruges.  

SHOULD WIN: WALL-E

WILL WIN: Milk

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Doubt
  
• Frost/Nixon
  
• The Reader
  
• Slumdog Millionaire 

All great films, but . . .

SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Josh Brolin, Milk
  
• Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
  
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
  
• Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
  
• Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road 

Every one of these actors performed brilliantly, but this is the one no-brainer of the night.

SHOULD WIN: Heath Ledger

WILL WIN: Heath Ledger

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

• Amy Adams, Doubt
  
• Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
  
• Viola Davis, Doubt
  
• Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler 

I have not seen V.C.B., so I cannot judge, but both Marisa Tomei and Viola Davis were amazing.  While Marisa Tomei's performance was more of a co-lead and was very brave, Viola Davis dominated the screen for the 10 minutes she was in the film.  This is a tough one . . .

SHOULD WIN: Viola Davis

WILL WIN: Viola Davis

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

• Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
  
• Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
  
• Sean Penn, Milk
  
• Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

This race is the one to watch.  Penn and Rourke have more or less ties in all of the pre-Oscar awards, and both give career-best performances.  I'm not sure about this.  But the Hollywood voters may want to assuage some Prop 8 guilt by rewarding Milk--just a theory.

SHOULD WIN: Mickey Rourke

WILL WIN: Sean Penn

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

• Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
  
• Angelina Jolie, Changeling
  
• Melissa Leo, Frozen River
  
• Meryl Streep, Doubt
  
• Kate Winslet, The Reader

I've only seen three of these films, but Streep, Leo, and Winslet are all great, though I think Winslet was nominated for the wrong movie--her performance in Revolutionary Road is much more powerful, I think.  Anyway . . .

SHOULD WIN: Kate Winslet

WILL WIN: Kate Winslet

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Changeling
  
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• The Dark Knight
  
• The Reader
  
• Slumdog Millionaire

No doubt who should win this.

SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

DIRECTOR

• David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
  
• Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
  
• Gus Van Sant, Milk
  
• Stephen Daldry, The Reader
  
• Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Again, this director deserves it for such a great achievement.

SHOULD WIN: Danny Boyle

WILL WIN: Danny Boyle

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

2008 was a fantastic year for films, though my top 5 only included two of these nominees.  I would have nominated others.  But nonetheless, the best picture will win Best Picture.

SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

See you on Sunday for Liveblogging the Oscars.  I'm nervous about the new format and goofy choice of host.  We'll see what happens.  Fortunately the films were great.