Saturday, February 26, 2011

Oscar Predictions

My Oscar Predictions

So here's how it will go down in the major categories. (Not the films I necessarily think should win--but who will win.)

Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle)
The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
Winter's Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini)

These are all great stories, but the winner is a sure thing. Aaron Sorkin's dialogue was so intelligent that no one can touch him in this category.

Prediction: The Social Network

Original Screenplay
Another Year (Mike Leigh)
The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy)
Inception (Christopher Nolan)
The Kids are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko)
The King's Speech (David Seidler)

I have not seen Another Year, but the rest of these are all excellent screenplays.

Prediction: The King's Speech

Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (Wally Pfister)
The King's Speech (Danny Cohen)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)

These films represent a great deal of on-screen gorgeousness, but I am hoping (and thinking) that after years of nominations, it is Roger Deakins's year.

Prediction: Roger Deakins (True Grit)

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

This category is always full of surprises, but I think the women from The Fighter may cancel each other out.

Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Five excellent performances, and until I saw The Fighter, I would have thought Geoffrey Rush was a lock.

Prediction: Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Why wasn't Julianne Moore nominated?
Prediction: Natalie Portman

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)

No doubt here. None.

Prediction: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Achievement in Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

I really think that Christopher Nolan and Danny Boyle deserve to be nominated this year. But the award will go to a director who crafted a taut, thrilling, fascinating picture out of something that seemed like unlikely source material.

Prediction: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

What a great list of films this year. And while I think that Inception was the best film, I know it does not stand a chance. Everyone is talking about the two-way race between old school Hollywood traditional storytelling (The King's Speech) and fresh, modern, now (The Social Network). Momentum seems to be pointing one way . . .

Prediction: The King's Speech

I'll be live-blogging tomorrow!


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